Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that split the nation and unleashed disorder, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the political, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly split population where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in universities but very few government figures or advocates are willing to participate with even the basics. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Both writes two pieces that aim for neutrality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and social figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates cover national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they prefer unification but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified points, he commented. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will in the end be defeated but all factions has possesses important lessons to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
