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Initially, Trump appeared to take a resolute stance on the Ukrainian conflict. After issuing threats of "severe repercussions" during the summer should Vladimir Putin continued obstructing truce discussions, he ultimately introduced major penalties on the Russian two largest oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil. This action substantially affected the Russian leader's capacity to support his aggression in Ukraine.

Yet, through his latest comprehensive peace initiative for the conflict, reportedly drafted by both nations' officials without Ukraine's or EU input, the former president has clearly returned to his pro-Putin position.

Rewarding Aggression

Trump's initiative would essentially benefit Putin for attacking a sovereign nation while leaving the country's democracy in peril. Although bold statements that "Ukraine's independence will be confirmed", significant aspects of the proposal in reality undermine that essential independence. What represents a Kremlin dream would likely be a Ukrainian nightmare.

Showing his real-estate background, Trump seems to view the situation in Ukraine as a mere border issue, as if handing Putin a part of Ukrainian territory will appease the ruler. But, Russia's invasion is not simply about controlling a destroyed region of deindustrialized land in eastern Ukraine. Instead, it's about Ukraine's democracy – and Putin's apparent desire to destroy it so it ceases to acts as an appealing model for the Russian people of the responsible government that Putin's increasing authoritarian rule withholds them.

Border Surrenders

While keeping in position the presently divided regions of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, the proposal would force Ukraine to surrender the entire Donetsk province. Aside from benefiting the Russian Federation with area that its troops have been failed to seize in over a ten years of fighting, this concession would render Ukraine's defensive positions critically undermined.

Donetsk is the place of Ukraine's well-known "defensive line", the well-established protective structures that are a essential barrier to enemy progress. Trump would have Ukraine surrender these positions, leaving Putin a unobstructed path to Kyiv in case he subsequently decide to restart the war.

Defense Restrictions

Then, in a move that would facilitate additional fighting more feasible for Russia, Trump would require the nation to reduce the numbers of its military from their existing approximately 800,000 personnel to a cap of this lower number. Importantly, Trump's proposal sets no similar restrictions on the invading army.

In what appears as a concession to Russia's campaign to portray the nation's legitimate administration as Nazis, the proposal asserts: "All radical belief system and activities must be opposed and banned." Seemingly to underscore this aspect, it requires that "The nation will hold political contests in this period" of a truce. At the same time, the proposal imposes no obligation that Putin endanger his regime by conducting elections in his own country.

Defense Guarantees

Admittedly, the initiative includes Russia pledge not to "enter neighboring countries" and to "establish in legislation its stance of peaceful relations towards Europe and Ukraine". But taking into account that the Russian leadership has breached equivalent accords in the history – such as the 1994 Budapest memorandum, in which the Russian government pledged to recognize the nation's borders in return for relinquishing its Soviet-era nuclear weapons, and the Minsk accords, in which Russia committed to a truce and a handback of seized territory in eastern Ukraine to Ukrainian control – why should the international community have confidence in Putin this time?

For this reason the Ukrainian government has been so insistent on external defense commitments. Although the plan warns of a "decisive unified military response" in case the Russian Federation resume its invasion, and states that "Ukraine will receive strong security guarantees", the particulars include unclear to concerning. The proposal would not only block the nation alliance membership but also preclude alliance nations from deploying military personnel on Ukrainian territory, thereby blocking the security presence, reportedly led by Britain and France, on which the Ukrainian government had been counting to prevent Putin from rebuilding his diminished troops, re-equipping, and resuming aggression.

Global Reaction

A separate side agreement according to sources would provide Ukraine with a Nato-style protection assurance, in which any later "significant, deliberate, and ongoing military assault" by Russia on Ukraine "will be treated as an assault jeopardizing the peace and security of the Western nations." This implies a armed reaction. But in contrast to a strong Ukraine's armed forces – Ukraine's best deterrent against additional invasion – the effectiveness of the supplementary deal would hinge on the commitment of alliance members, like the US administration, to react through arms to Russia's hostilities, something they have {not