🔗 Share this article

Amid the widespread uncertainty surrounding the United States attacks on Venezuela, the apprehension of leader Nicolás Maduro, and Donald Trump's announcement that the US will “manage” the country and “take back the oil”, a single fact remains evident – these actions create a deeply alarming precedent.

Past Interference and a New Threshold Crossed

The United States carries a troubling legacy of interference, invasion and occupation in that part of the world, but the early hours of Saturday saw its initial significant armed assault on South American land. “American dominance in the western hemisphere will never be questioned again,” Trump proclaimed.

The move to assault another independent nation and capture its head of state – only a few days after he openly looked for a diplomatic solution – carries even broader implications. This ought to concern everyone.

Profound Uncertainty for Venezuela

Venezuelans have lived through a dictatorship marked by theft and failure under Mr Maduro, widely believed to have stolen the last election. They now face profound uncertainty at best. Mr Trump has suggested that Mr Maduro’s deputy, Delcy Rodríguez would comply with American demands, and dismissed prominent critic and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a credible successor.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the interim president, has so far sounded notes of defiance – and other elements of the decapitated regime are far more intransigent.

A Shift in Global Role

A man who was elected promising to abandon foreign wars now says he is “unconcerned about deploying troops”. Redesignating the Department of Defense as the Department of War was not merely symbolic. He no longer views the world’s superpower as a guardian of order; he is converting it into a rogue state.

He holds the view that the America's power permits it to do as it wishes with minimal cost: observe the attacks in Nigeria and against Iranian nuclear sites. He claims that control of Venezuela's petroleum means this most recent venture “will pay for itself”.

A Move Devoid of International Legitimacy

George W. Bush invaded Iraq on a lie. But this illegal attack came without UN resolutions of any kind or the consent of the US Congress; key legislators received no advance notice and say they were deliberately deceived in briefings. Mr Trump aims not merely to stretch international norms, but to shatter them.

Put aside the signal this transmits to global powers like Russia and China, and ask where the US itself is heading. While the raid is said to have slain 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, no US personnel died. Mr Trump’s growing sense of invincibility will likely encourage additional military gambits.

The Thin Pretext and True Motives

It is widely rejected the pretext that this is concerning narcotics. Venezuela is only a secondary pathway for cocaine; Mr Trump recently exonerated the former Honduran president Juan Orlando Hernández for drugs and weapons crimes. Mr Trump himself made it clear that he is driven by the lure of oil as well as a desire to project strength, the worldview of key officials, and the appetite for triumphalism as his standing with the American public falters.

Tepid International Response and Waning Global Governance

The worldwide reception, especially in Europe, has – with a few principled deviations – been shockingly muted. That’s not because of Mr Maduro’s sins, but fear of Mr Trump’s wrath. The forceful statement from UN Secretary General António Guterres was commendable, but this episode emphasizes the institution’s growing irrelevance.

Mr Trump’s isolationist supporters at home could still pressure him to turn attention back home – but escalating insurance prices, economic unhappiness and other domestic scandals fuel his desire for external drama.

We are not yet 12 months into his presidential term. Other governments may live to repent if they fail to speak up today, given what – and who – could be next.