Keir Starmer's Supporters Begin 'Block Andy Burnham' Effort to Thwart Mayor's Commons Comeback

Close associates of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have reportedly started a concerted effort to block Andy Burnham, the Labour Mayor of Greater Manchester, from securing a return to the House of Commons. This move comes after the resignation of a Manchester MP, which has sparked an upcoming byelection.

Serious Hurdles in the Selection Procedure

Several members on the Labour Party's ruling NEC have apparently predicted it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the candidate selection procedure. This is primarily due to the significant number of supporters of the Prime Minister on the committee who are desperate to head off any future challenge to Starmer's leadership.

The party apparatus is said to have swung into action following the announcement of the MP's intended departure, with party figures and MPs voicing warnings about the substantial expense and political risk of a resulting mayoral race in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has been open about his political ambitions. Last year, he prompted consternation within No 10 and among senior ministers when he remarked that many MPs had encouraged him to run for the Labour leadership.

There has long been speculation that he is seeking a seat in the Commons to potentially stand for the Labour leadership if a challenge to Sir Keir arise. However, allies of the Greater Manchester Mayor have warned against overstating the extent of any planning, suggesting he is passionate about his current role and would solely return Westminster if he felt he had something to contribute.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.

Current Climate and Public Approval

Amid polls indicating Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs despondent about Labour's fate at the next election, Andy Burnham is seen as the only senior Labour personality with consistently positive ratings with the public.

Should Mr. Burnham choose to stand, multiple obstacles remain. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the chances are stacked against him—and then win the byelection against challenges from Reform UK and independent candidates, all prior to any possible leadership challenge.

Efforts to Block Burnham

High-ranking Labour sources have said that a "Block Burnham" campaign is already under way, with the party machinery being tightly controlled by key allies of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister himself commented that the by-election procedure was in its "early stages" and urged his MPs to cease discussion of possible contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's resignation was finalised, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

Figures on the committee have reportedly pointed to not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could redirect an estimated £500,000 in party funding from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.

A number of sources also shared fears about Reform UK attempting to fill any vacancy left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant political win for them.

Role of the Unions and Procedural Fears

As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to run. There is also speculation the body could enforce an all-female shortlist to prevent his candidacy.

However, one Burnham ally warned against presuming the NEC would simply block his candidacy, despite Sir Keir's team is largely believed to control it.

The trade unions occupy a significant number of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are currently keeping their counsel, insiders indicated they would be opposed to anything seen as interference from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

By-election Battle

The seat in question holds a sizable Labour majority. However, Reform UK is expected to mount a significant campaign, building on support in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on stronger footing in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter a challenge from independent candidates.

Should Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to launch a leadership challenge, a requirement that is far from certain given he is viewed with scepticism by a number of on the parliamentary party.

The resigning MP stated he was stepping down due to deteriorating health, which had made it untenable for him to continue in his role. He also remains subject to a parliamentary standards investigation concerning his membership in an offensive online group.